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Bernstein analysts maintain a $230 price target for Circle, expecting USDC to become the dominant stablecoin.
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Circle’s liquidity, regulatory advantage, and partnerships give it a long-term edge over Tether and new bank-backed stablecoins.
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Q2 saw USDC supply grow 90% year-over-year, with strong revenue gains despite a net loss from IPO-related charges.
Bernstein’s Bullish Outlook on Circle
Research firm Bernstein has reiterated its confidence in Circle’s long-term prospects, keeping a $230 price target — about 40% above current levels. Analysts argue that the most liquid, regulated stablecoin will ultimately dominate, positioning Circle’s USDC to lead the market.
They acknowledged investor concerns over potential competition from Tether’s U.S. entry under the GENIUS Act, but noted that even a compliant USDT would lack Circle’s existing scale and partnerships. Circle’s alliances with banks, payments firms, and exchanges, alongside its expanding market share, were highlighted as key advantages.
Competition From Banks and Fintechs
Circle also faces potential competition from stablecoins launched by major banks and fintech companies such as JPMorgan, Bank of America, PayPal, and Robinhood. Still, Bernstein believes Circle’s liquidity, multi-chain presence, and regulatory compliance keep it ahead.
Plans for Arc Blockchain
Following its $1.2 billion IPO in June, Circle announced Arc, an enterprise-grade Layer 1 blockchain focused on stablecoin payments, FX, and capital markets. Arc will use USDC as its native gas, feature sub-second settlement, and offer optional privacy features. The launch on public testnet is expected this fall.
Q2 Performance and Growth Metrics
USDC in circulation rose 90% year-over-year to $61.3 billion, reaching $65.2 billion by August 10. Circle’s Q2 revenue climbed 53% to $658 million, with services and transaction revenue up 252%. Despite a $482 million net loss from IPO-related charges, adjusted EBITDA grew 52% to $126 million.
Bernstein expects Q3 to be pivotal, pointing to rising ETH prices and continued USDC adoption as indicators of further growth.
