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Prediction markets are expanding into broader data-driven ecosystems, Bernstein says.
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Kalshi and Polymarket now handle billions in monthly volume.
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Robinhood’s integration could normalize event trading for retail users.
From Betting to Information Exchange
Bernstein analysts argue that platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are evolving from niche prediction venues into multi-category information markets spanning politics, sports, business, and economics.
Institutional and Retail Momentum Builds
Kalshi, now partnered with Robinhood, processed $2.5 billion in prediction-market volume in October, equivalent to a $300 million annual revenue rate. Polymarket followed with $3 billion, fueled by a $2 billion investment from ICE.
Regulatory and Technological Tailwinds
Clearer CFTC guidelines and blockchain integrations on Solana and Base are paving the way for global adoption. Polymarket is preparing a U.S. comeback through QCEX and its upcoming POLY token.
Mainstream Brokerages Lean In
Bernstein sees Robinhood and Coinbase leading the category’s institutional expansion. Robinhood’s growing crypto and prediction-market revenue suggest that event trading could become a major new product class by 2026.
