- Galaxy Research lowered the Clarity Act's approval odds from 50% to 30%.
- Analysts say lawmakers are running out of time before the August recess.
- Crypto industry groups are urging the Senate to bring the bill to the floor.
Galaxy Research has reduced its estimate for the chances of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 from 50% to just 30%, citing the shrinking legislative calendar.
According to Galaxy's Head of Research Alex Thorn, the biggest obstacle is no longer political support but time. Congress has only a small window before the August recess to begin Senate floor consideration.
The latest version of the bill has also drawn criticism from several Democratic senators, who argue it still lacks stronger ethics rules, consumer protections, and safeguards against illicit finance.
Meanwhile, the Crypto Council for Innovation, Blockchain Association, and The Digital Chamber have jointly urged Senate leaders to prioritize the legislation, warning that further delays could derail crypto market structure reform this year.
