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Grayscale says bitcoin could hit new highs in 2026
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Firm argues the 4 year cycle pattern will not repeat this time
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Current downturn does not match past parabolic tops
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Institutional flows and macro outlook support a recovery
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Tom Lee also expects a new bitcoin all time high by January
Grayscale Pushes Back Against the Four Year Cycle
Grayscale Research said bitcoin can reach new all time highs in 2026, rejecting the idea that the market is entering a long multi year downturn. In a new report, the firm argued that bitcoin is unlikely to follow the familiar halving linked four year pattern that traders often expect.
According to Grayscale, bitcoin’s recent drop does not resemble the parabolic rallies that typically precede deeper corrections. Instead, this cycle is shaped by a very different investor base and a steady buildup of institutional demand.
Market Structure Looks Different From Past Cycles
Grayscale highlighted that institutions now dominate flows through ETFs and corporate treasuries, instead of retail traders on spot exchanges. This makes price behavior less tied to past cycles. The firm also said recent pullbacks of more than 25 percent are normal during bull markets and do not automatically signal the start of a long downtrend.
The macro backdrop is also more supportive, with potential rate cuts and progress on U.S. crypto legislation offering additional tailwinds.
Tom Lee Agrees With the Bullish Outlook
BitMine CEO Tom Lee echoed Grayscale’s view and said bitcoin’s recent weakness is out of sync with improving fundamentals such as wallet growth and onchain activity. He told CNBC that he expects bitcoin to set a new all time high as early as January.
