📊 Bitcoin Dominance Hits 64.4% — And It's Not Done Yet

Cowen returns with a sharp take: Bitcoin dominance is pushing higher and likely headed to 66% or more, signaling continued weakness for altcoins relative to BTC.

“Bitcoin dominance is moving like clockwork — and it’s telling us altcoin season is nowhere in sight.”

🔍 Why Bitcoin Dominance Is Rising

Cowen outlines two key drivers behind this move:

  1. Quantitative Tightening (QT) Isn’t Over Yet

    Key Highlights:

    • As long as QT continues, liquidity stays tight, and riskier assets like altcoins suffer.

    • Cowen reminds viewers that BTC dominance topped in 2019 only after QT ended. We're not there yet.

  2. Altcoin Bleed Is Systemic, Not Temporary

    Key Highlights:

    • Most alts are underperforming Bitcoin on both USD and BTC pairs.

    • ETH/BTC just hit a new low.

    • Social interest in alts is weak, and memecoins plus rugs have turned off new retail entrants.

“Every cycle, altcoin investors swear it’ll be different. But until monetary policy shifts, it never is.”

🧮 Technical Outlook on Dominance

Key Highlights:

  • Dominance has respected Fib levels all cycle: currently approaching the 0.786 retracement at ~66%.

  • Cowen sees this as the next target — and possibly higher if sentiment remains cautious.

🧪 Altcoin Pain Is Still Likely

Cowen uses his favorite ratio: Total 3 - USDT / BTC (aka how the altcoin market stacks up against Bitcoin).

Key Highlights:

  • It’s in a downward broadening wedge, mimicking 2023–2024 behavior.

  • He believes a drop to 32% or even 29% altcoin market share is possible.

  • Many alt/BTC pairs are forming lower highs and lower lows, with no bottom in sight yet.

“This isn't an oscillator anymore. This is a bleed.”

🛑 ETH/BTC Breakdown

Key Highlights:

  • ETH/BTC has dropped below key long-term support.

  • Weekly RSI shows it might be near technical oversold levels — but Cowen won’t call a bottom until QT ends.

  • He says ETH has likely already given back a lot of ground, but altcoins overall haven’t.

⚖️ Dominance Composite Charts Show the Shift

Key Highlights:

  • Combining BTC, ETH, USDT, and USDC dominance puts the total at ~79%.

  • Cowen says this could climb to 82%, the peak seen in prior cycles.

  • That would align with a true altcoin bottom, which hasn't arrived yet.

🧭 Historical Context Matters

Key Highlights:

  • 2025 resembles early 2018 through late 2019 — a slow bleed era for altcoins.

  • Even small Fed rate cuts haven't been enough — rate policy is still restrictive.

  • Cowen believes Altcoin's outperformance needs retail FOMO + easy monetary conditions, neither of which is here yet.

“Altcoins won’t come back until the Fed pivots hard. And they haven’t — not yet.”

🪙 Should You Hold Alts Now?

Cowen is blunt:

Key Highlights:

  • If you’re holding altcoins expecting a short-term reversal, you’re fighting the trend.

  • He suggests holding Bitcoin, cash (USDT/USDC), or metals until there’s a real shift in macro conditions.

🧠 Final Take – Cowen’s Macro and Market View:

Key Highlights:

  • Bitcoin dominance is climbing for a reason: altcoins are bleeding, retail is absent, and liquidity is tight.

  • His base case is that dominance hits 66 %+ in the coming weeks.

  • Altcoins are likely to keep underperforming until quantitative tightening ends and the market sees a real risk-on shift.

  • Don’t expect altseason just because “it’s time.” The chart and the macro still favor BTC.

Josh Olszewicz — Altcoins: Mostly Status Quo (April 17, 2025 Summary)
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Josh Olszewicz — Altcoins: Mostly Status Quo (April 17, 2025 Summary)