Benjamin Cowen dives into what he sees as one of the biggest problems in crypto right now: the misallocation of capital toward meme coins while everything in between Bitcoin and speculative gambling gets ignored. He argues that the market has shifted away from development and real utility, creating a two-tiered ecosystem of Bitcoin maxis and meme coin speculators.
1. Bitcoin Dominance Continues to Climb – And That’s a Good Thing
- Bitcoin dominance has risen from 38-39% in 2021 to 64% today, following a historical trend where altcoins bleed against Bitcoin until the Federal Reserve pivots.
- Many traders keep calling for altseason, but Cowen reminds us that true altseason doesn’t begin until alt/BTC pairs reach historical lows, which hasn’t happened yet.
- Altcoins are still bleeding against Bitcoin, just as they have been since 2021, showing that the market isn’t ready for a broad altcoin rally yet.
2. Meme Coins – The Biggest Misallocation of Capital in Crypto
- Crypto’s attention is polarized between Bitcoin and meme coins, with everything in between being ignored or undervalued.
- The idea of a "meme coin super cycle" is a myth, pushed by influencers who profit from promoting these projects.
- Others/BTC (a measure of small-cap altcoins vs. Bitcoin) has been declining for years, proving that meme coins collectively bleed against Bitcoin over time.
- Influencers pump meme coins, make money, and move on – leaving their followers holding worthless bags.
- Retail traders are getting rugged within 48 hours, losing money and leaving the market again, preventing long-term adoption.
3. Crypto Has Stopped Focusing on Development
- Previous cycles were driven by innovation (DeFi in 2020, NFTs in 2021), but this cycle has focused only on speculation and ETFs.
- Regulatory fears in 2023-2024 discouraged builders, leading to fewer new projects with real utility.
- Investors and traders have stopped looking for value and are now only chasing quick gains in meme coins.
- The crypto industry is currently more focused on getting retail back into the market rather than building something meaningful that would attract them naturally.
4. The Market Needs to “Heal” Before Real Growth Happens
- The current cycle is similar to past market resets, where altcoin pairs against BTC continue to drop until they reach historic lows.
- Bitcoin will likely remain dominant until the Federal Reserve officially pivots from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE).
- Only after altcoins reach extreme lows against BTC will there be an environment for real altseason and new opportunities.
- The market needs to shift back toward development and real use cases, rather than endless speculation on meme coins.
Final Take
Cowen believes that meme coin speculation is not sustainable, and that as an industry, crypto must move away from the current cycle of pump-and-dump projects and return to focusing on innovation. Bitcoin remains the safest bet, while most altcoins continue to bleed against BTC. Until real development resumes, most investors are better off sticking with Bitcoin rather than gambling on short-lived meme coin hype cycles.
🚨 Crypto needs to refocus on real value – not just hype.
