Ryan and guest Tom Schmidt (Dragonfly VC) dig into whether the crypto bull run is losing steam or still has legs. With Bitcoin and ETH trending flat and no blow-off top in sight, many investors are wondering: is this cycle already over, or are we just in a lull before the final push?
Key Points – Tom’s Market Outlook
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Market feels flat despite macro tailwinds – Bitcoin briefly fell below $100K but rebounded quickly. Government shutdown resolution and macro liquidity (via the Treasury General Account and potential Fed rate cuts) should be bullish, yet prices are stagnating.
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Benjamin Cowen’s signal – Bitcoin closing below the 50-week moving average for two weeks has historically signaled the end of bull markets. This metric is on watch.
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Altseason never arrived – Tom notes the lack of a euphoric altcoin phase, which traditionally marks cycle tops. That missing mania could mean the cycle isn't done yet.
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Zooming out is key – Despite short-term pessimism, multi-year trends are intact. Trading volumes in crypto products are still strong, and adoption continues across traditional finance and tech.
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Psychology vs. fundamentals – The gut says it’s over due to lack of excitement, but the data says otherwise. As Tom puts it, “Markets don’t end until there's drunken euphoria,” and that hasn’t happened.
Final Takeaway
Tom doesn’t think the bull market is over. While some metrics flash red and sentiment is weak, the absence of an altcoin blow-off, improving macro conditions, and strong fundamentals suggest more upside may still be ahead — possibly stretching into 2026.
