On the Bankless podcast, Ryan and Michael (from the DeFi Report) discussed whether the current crypto cycle will follow the usual 4-year pattern or stretch into 2026.
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Classic 4-year cycles: Bitcoin topped in Dec 2013, Dec 2017, and late 2021. Following that pattern, the next peak would be around Q4 2025.
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Why it could extend:
Key Highlights:-
Global liquidity is still expanding, which supports risk assets like Bitcoin and ETH.
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Banks are loosening lending standards, though loan demand is still low. This means “dry powder” could enter markets later.
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The Fed may cut rates if the labor market weakens, pushing investors out of cash and into assets like crypto.
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On-chain data shows long-term holders selling, but not at extreme levels. The market hasn’t reached “euphoria” yet.
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Signals to watch:
Key Highlights:-
If Bitcoin corrects but holds above key support levels, that could reset the market and allow for an extended run into 2026.
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If ETH breaks higher fast (5K+), that might point to a more traditional Q4 2025 peak.
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Takeaway: The 4-year cycle still holds weight, but this time could be different. Liquidity, Fed policy, and institutional flows may stretch the bull run into 2026.
