This week is a big one for MACRO, according to Max from BecauseBitcoin.
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On Wednesday, we have the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting where the Federal Reserve will decide on interest rate policy.
Key Highlights:-
While it's almost certain (97% chance) that rates will remain unchanged, Max says we have an "obligation to wildly speculate" on what the Fed really wants to convey through their commentary.
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Then on Thursday and Friday, we get important jobs data - initial jobless claims and the unemployment rate.
Key Highlights:-
Max explains that historically, when the Fed starts cutting rates, it's because the labor market is weakening and more people are losing jobs. He shows charts overlaying the Fed funds rate, unemployment, and the S&P 500 - when rates get cut, stocks tend to fall as it signals a slowing economy.
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The key takeaway is that we likely don't need to panic yet, as markets are pricing in rate cuts only starting in Q3 or Q4 2024. The stock market and crypto should remain strong until the Fed actually starts cutting rates, which would be a signal that economic conditions are deteriorating.
Max advises keeping a close eye on this week's FOMC statement, jobs data, and any changes to rate cut expectations. But for now, he sees further upside potential until that pivotal point when the first-rate cuts begin.
