Max from BecauseBitcoin explores the possibility that the Bitcoin cycle top might already be in. Drawing from historical cycle timing, altcoin behavior, and his custom-built indicators, he lays out both the bullish and bearish scenarios facing the crypto market. He emphasizes preparation over prediction and shows why he’s currently leaning slightly defensive.
Key Points:
-
Cycle Timing: Based on previous Bitcoin cycles, we are currently at a similar point (in terms of days since the halving and market bottom) where past tops occurred.
-
Altcoin Weakness: A major difference in this cycle is the absence of a true alt season. Max argues that the current cycle has been unusually Bitcoin-heavy, with altcoins failing to follow their typical late-cycle surge.
-
October 10th Crash: A massive altcoin liquidation event caused significant breakdowns, and Max suspects it might have deeper effects, including market maker fallout.
-
Fractals & Caution: He outlines a past scenario where altcoins lost structure first, followed by Bitcoin weeks later - a similar setup may be playing out now.
-
Defensive Bot Signals: Max’s trading bots, which have outperformed holding spot BTC and ETH, are currently positioned defensively. This is not a panic sign but a cautionary one.
-
Key Support Levels: A 30% pullback from all-time highs would align with past corrections and still preserve the broader uptrend. Breaking below that, however, would be concerning.
Final Takeaway:
Max isn’t calling a top, but he is playing cautious. With altcoins still underperforming, bots shifting to defense, and major trendlines at risk, he's positioning for both outcomes. Stay invested, but stay prepared.
