Benjamin Cowen explores what the end of quantitative tightening (QT) could mean for altcoins. He argues that altcoin strength usually returns after QT ends, but warns that Bitcoin must first confirm the cycle is still alive. Until then, holding BTC remains the safer play.
Benjamin’s Outlook – Key Points
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Altcoins stay weak during QT – Just like in 2019, altcoins have bled against Bitcoin while QT is active. The trend may reverse only once QT ends.
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QT could end soon – Jerome Powell signaled that balance sheet contraction may stop in the coming months, possibly triggering a shift in market dynamics.
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Two possible outcomes
Key Highlights:-
Option 1: Bitcoin breaks to new highs – altcoin pairs may finally bounce (late 2025).
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Option 2: Bitcoin drops to the 50-week SMA – altcoins would crash harder.
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BTC is the safer bet – Whether Bitcoin rises or falls, Cowen says holding BTC reduces downside risk versus altcoins, which often drop 40-50% during corrections.
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Altseason needs confirmation – A real altcoin season won’t begin until Bitcoin makes a new cycle high. Cowen warns that calls for early altseasons have been premature.
Final Takeaway
Until QT ends and Bitcoin proves the cycle is intact, Cowen recommends staying heavy in BTC. If BTC rallies to new highs, rotating into alts may make sense. If not, Bitcoin still offers better protection in a downturn.
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