Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin is deep into a "classic case of the Bear Market Blues," a phase driven by apathy rather than euphoria. He cautions against viewing it strictly through the four-year cycle and suggests deferring to the 2019 market pattern, as both coincided with the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT).
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Sentiment & Cycle: This bear market differs from previous crashes (2014, 2018, 2022) because it is coming off of apathy, not euphoria and an "alt season," aligning it closely with the 2019 slump. The current market top aligns with prior four-year cycle tops and the end of QT, just as in 2019, where the price continued to drop for several months after QT concluded.
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Bearish Base Case: Cowen's most likely outcome is for Bitcoin to sweep the prior macro low (go below $74K) by the end of the year or early next year. The recent relief rally was weak, making the sweep more probable than a direct rally.
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Price Path & Target: Following the low sweep, the price will likely experience a counter-trend rally back to the Bull Market Support Band, forming a lower high, and eventually leading to a deeper drop into the summer. The 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is always a factor in midterm years, aligns with a price target of approximately $60K to $70K by summer.
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Timing & Macro: Following the 2019 tracking, he expects the macro headwinds to continue for another 100 to 120 days. A true breakout would require major catalysts like the stock market dropping or a change in Fed leadership, as stocks are currently near all-time highs.
The Takeaway
Cowen emphasizes that investors must "trade the market you have, not the market that you want". While the bear market is difficult, the current phase is normal, and investors should be open-minded to the price sweeping the low. He reminds viewers that the real money is made in the bear markets by sticking around and buying opportunities, setting up the foundation for the next cycle.
