Cowen says Bitcoin's long awaited meeting with the 200 week moving average is coming, and history points to mid June as the most likely moment.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin's "date with destiny" is the 200 week moving average sitting around 62K, a level that has marked major lows in every single bear market cycle
- The 2026 setup is tracking 2018 almost exactly, a February low at 60K, a lower high in May, and now heading into a June low
- The current rally lasted 17 weeks without a new low, well within the normal range of 20 to 21 weeks seen in 2018 and 2022
- Bitcoin could wick below the 200 week moving average and sweep the February low before trying to hold and recover into July
Takeaway A June low followed by a July bounce and then a final drop in Q4 remains the most likely path. Nothing about this cycle has been different, it has simply been doing what it always does, just at 10x the price.
