Benjamin Cowen explores whether Bitcoin is entering a bear market that breaks the usual four-year cycle mold. Instead of a euphoric peak like in 2017 or 2021, Cowen believes the current cycle resembles 2019 - marked by apathy, not hype. That subtle shift, he argues, could shape an entirely different market path through 2026.
Cowen’s Outlook – Key Points
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A Top Without Euphoria – Cowen points out that retail interest is low, with no clear signs of mania. This aligns with how 2019 played out, when Bitcoin peaked quietly without an altseason or social frenzy.
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Q4 Peak Timing Holds – Every past cycle has topped in Q4 of the post-halving year. Cowen says this timing is still intact, even if the price didn’t skyrocket as much as some hoped.
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Bear Market Already Underway? – Indicators like breaking below the 50-week moving average and key support suggest the bear market may have already started in October.
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Slow Bleed Scenario – Instead of a sharp crash, Cowen outlines a drawn-out decline into mid-2026, potentially followed by a recovery if looser monetary policy returns.
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Altcoins Still Weak – Without retail interest and with Bitcoin dominance likely to climb further, Cowen doesn’t expect a true altseason anytime soon.
Final Takeaway
This might not be a typical bear market, but Cowen believes it’s still a bear. Without retail hype or institutional tailwinds, Bitcoin could drift lower for months before bottoming in mid-2026.
