Benjamin Cowen explains why Bitcoin may still face downside despite the recent rally. His main focus is stablecoin dominance, which he sees as a key signal for the broader crypto market.

Key Points

Key Highlights:

  • Cowen tracks stablecoin dominance (USDT + USDC) as a measure of risk appetite. Rising dominance usually means investors are moving money out of crypto.

  • Two months ago he predicted dominance would pull back and then jump toward ~12–13%, which already happened.

  • Historically, after a breakout, the first drop is often a higher low before another move higher, not the end of the trend.

  • Because of this pattern, he believes stablecoin dominance could rise further to around 14–15%, which would be bearish for crypto.

  • Bitcoin may be repeating past cycles: a February bottom followed by a March rally that becomes a lower high before another decline.

  • He also notes Bitcoin has underperformed gold, energy stocks, and the S&P 500 this year, showing capital rotation to safer assets.

Final Takeaway
Cowen’s base case is that the crypto market is still in a mid-cycle bear phase, with stablecoin dominance rising and Bitcoin likely forming a lower high before the next major bull cycle.

Altcoin Daily – my most bullish crypto coins i’m buying in 2026 (17.03.2026 Summary)
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Altcoin Daily – my most bullish crypto coins i’m buying in 2026 (17.03.2026 Summary)