Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin’s recent rejection at the 200-day moving average supports his view that the broader bear market may not be over yet.

Key Points

Key Highlights:
  • Cowen focuses on stablecoin dominance, which he says is following the same bullish breakout structure Bitcoin dominance showed in previous cycles
  • He argues large multi-year breakouts usually continue much longer than most traders expect
  • Stablecoin dominance briefly dipped below key moving averages, similar to 2022, before bouncing higher again
  • Bitcoin was rejected at the 200-day moving average, the same level that acted as resistance during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets
  • Cowen compares the current setup to 2018: February low, higher low in April, rally into May, then possible weakness into June
  • He believes many traders are becoming bullish too early while macro conditions still look weak
  • According to Cowen, rising stablecoin dominance suggests investors are still moving defensively rather than aggressively back into crypto

Final Takeaway

Cowen remains bearish on Bitcoin’s medium-term outlook, arguing the market still resembles previous bear market structures rather than the start of a new sustainable bull run.

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