Benjamin Cowen dives into how the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) might affect Bitcoin, drawing parallels to the 2019 market cycle. He argues that investors expecting a sudden rally may be disappointed.
Key Points:
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QT officially ends December 1, but Cowen stresses that a balance sheet increase may lag by weeks or even months.
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In 2019, Bitcoin topped before QT ended, and the market bled slowly despite the start of Quantitative Easing (QE).
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Bitcoin’s current decline mirrors past bear markets, and Cowen believes we’re already in one, with potential relief rallies before further downside.
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He expects Bitcoin to follow a 2019-style structure: continued weakness, counter-trend rallies, and a mid-2026 bottom.
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Interest rate cuts and liquidity injections may eventually help, but not immediately. Cowen warns that ETF inflows and macro hopes won’t save altcoins in the near term.
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Bitcoin dominance may continue to rise as alts bleed further.
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He encourages patience, arguing bear markets bring long-term opportunity, not just pain.
Final Takeaway:
Cowen believes the market is repeating 2019’s playbook. QT ending won’t immediately reverse Bitcoin’s downtrend, and investors should prepare for a grind through 2026 rather than a quick return to all-time highs.
