Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin reaching the 200-day moving average is a major test, as this level has acted as resistance in several past bear markets.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin is now testing the 200-day moving average, a level that rejected price in past bear markets like 2018 and 2022
- Cowen says the current setup still closely resembles 2018, with a February low, higher April low, and rally into May
- He notes Bitcoin’s price structure today is very similar to 2018, just roughly 10x higher in value
- The main debate is whether this cycle follows the weaker 2018 path or the stronger 2019 recovery
- Even in 2014 and 2019, when Bitcoin moved above the 200-day average, the move was temporary before another decline
- Cowen still expects Bitcoin to weaken later in the year and possibly revisit lower levels
- He says monthly Heikin Ashi candles still resemble past bear market structures rather than a confirmed new bull market
Final Takeaway
Cowen still leans bearish despite Bitcoin’s recent rally. His view is that the 200-day moving average remains a key resistance area, and unless Bitcoin can hold above it sustainably, the market may still see another major leg down later this year.
