Benjamin Cowen explains that Bitcoin is once again testing the bear market resistance band. His view is that this is a key moment, but history suggests it will likely struggle to break through.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin has rallied back to the bear market resistance band, a level that often rejects price in downtrends
- In past cycles like 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin briefly broke above this level but failed to hold it
- Midterm years typically include these rallies, but they often end with another move lower
- Current price action closely matches past patterns, with a February low, April higher low, and rally into May
- Rising energy prices could act as a macro headwind, making it harder for the Fed to cut rates
- If rate cuts are delayed, it reduces liquidity, which is key for crypto to move higher
- Even if Bitcoin holds above 60K, Cowen expects a retest later in the year, possibly in summer or around October
- If Bitcoin fails to even reach higher resistance levels like the 200-day moving average, it could signal deeper weakness
Final Takeaway
This is a key test for Bitcoin. If it gets rejected here, the market is likely still in a broader downtrend, with another leg lower before a true recovery begins.
