Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin’s current rally still looks like a typical bear market bounce rather than the start of a new bull cycle.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Cowen believes Bitcoin entered a bear market after the Q4 2025 top
- Current price action still resembles past midterm-year cycles like 2014 and 2018
- Bitcoin formed a February low and a higher low in late March, similar to previous bear market patterns
- He says rallies above the bull market support band and toward the 200-day moving average are common during bear markets
- Bitcoin dominance continues rising, showing altcoins remain weak and retail interest is still low
- Cowen expects another move lower later this year, with October remaining his main target window
- He says long countertrend rallies are normal and do not automatically confirm a new bull market
Final Takeaway
Cowen remains cautious on Bitcoin despite the rally. His view is that the market still fits historical bear market behavior, and he expects another major test of lows before a true recovery begins.
