Benjamin Cowen breaks down why Bitcoin’s recent rally might be running into a key resistance area, and why the bigger picture still points to downside risk.
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin is currently around $71–72K, while the bear market resistance band sits higher at ~$78–79K, a level that often acts as rejection during bear markets.
- In past cycles, Bitcoin sometimes briefly moves above this band, but most rallies fail there and continue lower, especially in mid-cycle bear phases.
- The current structure is similar to previous years: low in February, rally in March, weakness into April, which often leads to another leg down later.
- Cowen still sees a ~70–75% chance that Bitcoin makes a lower low, since key bottom signals (like MVRV, realized price, etc.) haven’t been reached yet.
- The broader macro matters: we’re likely in a late business cycle, where money moves from risk to safety → altcoins → Bitcoin → stocks → gold.
- That’s why altcoins are underperforming heavily, and even when Bitcoin rallies, they barely move.
Final takeaway
Bitcoin could still rally toward the $78–79K resistance zone, but that’s more likely a sell area than a breakout.
Overall, Cowen’s view is simple: the low is probably not in yet, and this is still a bear market with more downside risk ahead.
