In this update, Benjamin Cowen revisits one of his core indicators, the Bitcoin bear market resistance band. His message is simple: what we are seeing right now is not unusual. In fact, Bitcoin is behaving almost exactly like it has in previous midterm-year bear markets.
Key Points
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Benjamin says the former bull market support band has now flipped into a bear market resistance band
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This band is based on the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA, and in midterm years Bitcoin often gets rejected from it
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He argues the initial 50% drawdown is usually the “easy” part of the bear market
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Historically, Bitcoin often sees a February low, March rally, then more weakness in April and May
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He notes similarities to 2022: a sharp wick down, short consolidation, and potential counter-trend rallies
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He warns that trying to time counter-trend rallies is extremely difficult
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On average, Bitcoin’s 2026 performance is tracking closely with prior midterm years like 2014, 2018, and 2022
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His base case is a bottom later in the year, possibly around October, though he does not rule out an earlier low
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He stresses that investors often ignore downside risk near tops and only accept bear markets near bottoms
Final Takeaway
Benjamin’s view remains cautious and data-focused. Bitcoin is not behaving abnormally, it is following a historical midterm-year pattern. Until price can reclaim and hold the resistance band as support, he considers the market to be in a broader contraction phase, with patience and risk management more important than chasing rallies.
