In this video, Benjamin Cowen explains why Bitcoin’s former bull market support band should now be viewed as bear market resistance. His core point is simple: the cycle looks finished, and price behavior is starting to match past bear markets more than bull phases.
What Cowen is saying (in plain terms)
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Bitcoin respected the bull market support band for most of the cycle, but once it lost that level, the role flipped
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Past Bitcoin cycles have lasted around the same number of days, and this one lines up almost perfectly, which makes it hard to argue the cycle is still ongoing
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Midterm years have historically been bear markets for Bitcoin, like 2014, 2018, and 2022, so 2026 fitting that pattern is not unusual
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In bear markets, Bitcoin often makes slightly lower highs and lower lows rather than crashing straight down
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Rallies back into the old support band are normal, but in this phase they tend to fail and act as resistance
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Cowen compares the current setup to 2019, where Bitcoin topped on apathy, not hype, and then slowly bled lower
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He thinks a sweep of the April 2025 low is a realistic outcome before the next true bull phase begins
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Measuring Bitcoin against gold and silver shows even more weakness than the USD chart suggests, reinforcing the bear market view
Takeaway
Cowen’s view is that Bitcoin is already in a bear market and that the bull market support band should be treated as resistance until proven otherwise. His base case is more sideways-to-down movement into summer 2026, not an immediate return to a bull run.
