Benjamin Cowen checks in on Bitcoin's rally and why it keeps tracking 2018 almost exactly.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin is up about 10% in July so far, less than 2018's 40% and 2022's 20% gains, but the same rally-then-rejection pattern keeps repeating every cycle
- The chart lines up nearly identically with 2018, February low, higher low in late March, low swept in late June, now rallying back toward resistance
- Retail interest keeps dropping, YouTube views to crypto channels keep falling as people get tired of chasing hype that never pays off
- Historically it takes until the post-halving year to break through this resistance level for good, so a breakout this early would be unusual
Takeaway Nothing is really different this cycle, it just feels different. Expect rejection at resistance, a pullback into August and September, and the real test of a final low still ahead in Q4.
