Benjamin Cowen breaks down why July typically brings a short relief rally after June's pain and why that does not mean the bear market is over.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- June lows followed by a July bounce is not a coincidence, it happened in 2018 with a 38% July gain and in 2022 with a 19% gain, before both gave everything back in August and September
- Bitcoin just bounced off exactly 57,000 the same level it bounced from in 2018 at 5,700, the simulation keeps repeating
- The 200 day moving average is falling fast and will hit around 70K by mid August, meaning any counter trend rally runs straight into a wall
- The strategy remains the same, DCA through the second half of the midterm year and ignore the emotional swings that come with every counter trend rally
Takeaway July strength is real but temporary. The final low most likely comes in Q4 when stocks correct and drag Bitcoin down one last time. Make hay while the sun shines but do not mistake a brief window of strength for the end of the bear market.
