In this update, Benjamin Cowen analyzes Bitcoin’s position as it enters 2026. He focuses on whether the current price movement is a genuine recovery or a temporary "dead cat bounce" before a deeper drop.
📉 Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band Insights from Benjamin Cowen
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The "Midterm Year" Bounce: Cowen notes that 2026 is a "midterm year," which historically begins with a 10–15% rally before moving lower. He believes we are currently in this "counter-trend rally," which typically lasts until the first batch of sellers is exhausted.
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The $100K Resistance: The 50-week moving average and the Bull Market Support Band currently sit between $99,000 and $102,000. Cowen expects Bitcoin to test this range soon but warns that unless it secures multiple weekly closes above it, the move is likely a "lower high" rejection.
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Targeting the 200-Week MA: Cowen’s primary thesis is that Bitcoin will eventually break below its current support and test the 200-week moving average (estimated roughly between $60k–$70k) by Summer or October 2026. This is a pattern seen in every previous bear market cycle.
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Apathy Over Euphoria: Unlike previous tops, this one happened on "apathy" (low retail interest). Cowen argues this means the market must drop low enough to finally convince the "Super Cycle" holdouts that the bear market is real. That final moment of "capitulation" is usually where the actual bottom is found.
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The "Return to Normal" Trap: He cautions that early-year green candles can be a trap. In 2018, Bitcoin started the year up 20% before ultimately crashing. He advises investors to watch for "follow-through" rather than just a quick touch of $100k.
The Takeaway
According to Benjamin Cowen, Bitcoin is likely headed for a "back-test" of the $100,000 level in the coming months. However, he views this as a selling opportunity rather than a new bull phase. He expects a final drop to the 200-week moving average later in 2026 to fully flush out the market before a long-term recovery begins.
