Bitcoin has broken above $125K after bouncing off its bull market support band. Benjamin Cowen explains how this move fits the same post-halving pattern seen in past cycles and what to watch for in Q4.
Key takeaways from Benjamin’s outlook
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Bitcoin is following its classic pattern: a high in August, a low in September, then a Q4 rally into the cycle top. This happened in 2013, 2017 and 2021 – and now again.
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He stresses not to get complacent. All major tops have happened in Q4 of the post-halving year, and no one knows the exact price or day of the peak.
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Bitcoin dominance is rising, showing liquidity is moving into BTC and away from altcoins. Cowen expects altcoins to keep lagging even if BTC rallies further.
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Watch the 50‑week moving average at around $101K. Multiple weekly closes below it have marked the end of previous cycles.
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So far, retail euphoria is missing. Time-based metrics suggest we may be further along in the cycle, but other indicators haven’t flashed “top” yet.
Final takeaway
Cowen believes Bitcoin’s Q4 rally is playing out on schedule. He’s bullish but cautious, watching for signs of euphoria and a possible peak later this quarter.
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