Cowen explains why Bitcoin’s bull market support band should currently be seen as resistance, not confirmation that a new bull market has started. He argues the market still behaves like a late-cycle environment rather than an early breakout phase.
What he’s saying
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Bitcoin remains below the bull market support band, which in midterm years often acts as resistance before a true trend reversal
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A clean break above this level usually does not happen on the first attempt and often follows a period of consolidation or lower lows
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While recent price action looks similar to 2022 on the surface, the underlying market behavior is closer to 2019
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The market topped during apathy, not euphoria, meaning retail participation and speculation are still low
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Bitcoin continues to lead while altcoins lag, showing limited risk appetite across the market
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With little retail panic left to unwind, further downside is more likely to be gradual rather than a sharp crash
Takeaway
Cowen’s key point is that this still looks like a late-cycle consolidation. Short-term rallies can happen, but without a clear macro trigger, they are more likely part of a broader range than the start of a new bull market.
