Benjamin Cowen believes Bitcoin’s bull market support band keeps rising because the price is still above both the 20-week SMA and the 21-week EMA. He points out that this band sits somewhere between 81 thousand and 84 thousand dollars. According to Cowen, Bitcoin has stayed above 90 thousand dollars through December and into January, which reminds him of a similar sideways period in a past cycle. However, he warns that history does not always repeat itself.
He pays close attention to the 100-day moving average, currently near 86 thousand dollars. He thinks Bitcoin might meet this average either by dropping down to it or by letting the average climb up to match the price. A quick drop and strong bounce would be similar to early 2024, while a slower dip under recent lows would mirror 2023, when Bitcoin briefly returned to its earlier breakout point before moving higher again.
Cowen also notes that in previous years like 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin had mid-cycle corrections of about 30 percent in January. Even though Bitcoin has remained above its bull market support band this time, he makes it clear that nothing guarantees it will continue to do so.
He believes the 10-year yield is a major factor. When the yield rises, it can put pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin. In the past, Bitcoin’s dips sometimes lined up with increases in the 10-year yield. Despite this uncertainty, Cowen highlights the importance of good risk management. He encourages having a plan for various outcomes and knowing when to buy or sell. Since nobody can predict the future with certainty, he feels that staying balanced and prepared is the best approach.
