Benjamin Cowen focuses on Bitcoin’s market structure, the importance of key support levels, and why altcoins are struggling to gain momentum.
1. Bitcoin’s Bull Market Support Band ($90K) is Critical
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin has been moving sideways since November, allowing the 20-week and 21-week moving averages to catch up.
- $90K is the first major support—if lost, Bitcoin could retest 2024 highs (~$74K).
- Daily closes below the 100-day MA suggest weakening momentum, making a correction more likely.
2. Altcoin Market Weakness
Key Highlights:
- Altcoins have been bleeding against Bitcoin since 2021, with no confirmed trend reversal.
- Ethereum remains well below its all-time high, showing continued underperformance.
- Meme coins have dropped 80%+ in a month, highlighting speculative exhaustion.
3. The Risk of a Left-Translated Cycle
Key Highlights:
- If Bitcoin fails to hold $90K, there’s a risk of an early market peak (left-translated cycle).
- However, as long as Bitcoin remains above $74K, the macro uptrend is intact.
- A strong ETF-driven Bitcoin cycle may delay altseason further.
4. Why Sentiment Feels Bad Despite High Bitcoin Prices
Key Highlights:
- Most traders hold altcoins, not Bitcoin, which have underperformed.
- Meme coin crashes and lack of altcoin breakouts have created pessimism, even with Bitcoin near all-time highs.
- Altseason usually comes after max despair, meaning further altcoin bleeding may be necessary before recovery.
Final Take
Bitcoin remains the strongest asset in crypto, while altcoins are still in a prolonged bear market against BTC. If $90K holds, Bitcoin remains bullish—if it fails, a deeper correction is possible.
🔥 Altseason won’t start until altcoins bottom further. Bitcoin dominance is likely to increase before any reversal.
