Cowen is basically checking in on where Bitcoin is sitting right now and whether this recent bounce actually changes the bigger picture. His answer is mostly no, at least not yet.
Key points (explained like you’re chatting)
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Bitcoin just rallied back up to the bull market support band, which is exactly what Cowen expected to happen this year
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He’s seen this movie before, similar bounces happened in 2018, 2019, and 2022 before price moved lower again
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The rally doesn’t mean the market is strong, it mostly means sellers got tired for a bit and price bounced
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This cycle didn’t end with hype and mania, it ended with people losing interest, which is actually common before longer slowdowns
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Midterm years are often weak for Bitcoin, not explosive, and so far 2026 is behaving like that
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Cowen thinks Bitcoin is likely forming a lower high, not gearing up for new all-time highs
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If price can’t reclaim much higher levels, especially above the 50-week average, the path of least resistance is still down
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A move back toward the low $70K area wouldn’t be shocking to him, that’s where strong support sits
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Even deeper downside wouldn’t be unusual, many cycles eventually test the 200-week average during this phase
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The key point, lack of panic doesn’t mean the bear phase is over, it just means people quietly stepped away
How Cowen sees the timeline
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Short-term rallies can continue for weeks
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Medium-term, he expects more sideways to lower movement into summer
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Long-term, he still believes Bitcoin will recover and move to new highs, just not yet
Takeaway
Cowen’s message is basically, don’t confuse a bounce with a trend change. This looks like a normal cooldown phase after a big run, not the start of a new bull market. Patience matters more than hype right now.
