Benjamin Cowen updates his view on the Bitcoin cycle, focusing on the bull market support band and the historical pattern of cycle tops. He believes Q4 is make-or-break for Bitcoin, and we’re likely close to a key turning point.
Cowen’s Outlook – Key Points
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History Says the Top Is Near
Every Bitcoin cycle has topped in Q4 of the post-halving year. Cowen sees no reason to assume this time will be different. -
Support Band Breach Is a Warning
Bitcoin is now below its bull market support band. If this continues and the 50-week moving average breaks, it may confirm the top is in. -
Dominance Rising Fast
Bitcoin dominance has been rising for six straight weeks. Cowen expects it to move well past 60%, as liquidity rotates out of altcoins. -
Altcoins Still Weak
Altcoins remain in decline versus BTC. Cowen warns they won’t move until after Bitcoin breaks all-time highs - if it does. -
Final Rally Still Possible
A parabolic move could still happen in November or December. If not, he believes the cycle is likely over. -
Death Cross Could Be a Buy Signal
A looming death cross may mark a local bottom - just as it did in previous cycles.
Final Takeaway
Cowen remains cautiously optimistic for the next few weeks but says the clock is ticking. If Bitcoin doesn’t rally by year-end, history suggests the top is already in. Until then, sticking with Bitcoin remains the safest move.
