Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin had a strong weekly close, reclaiming key technical levels. He emphasizes that with limited time left in the four-year cycle, Bitcoin can’t afford extended dips below major support lines. This bounce back is a positive signal - but the clock is ticking.
Benjamin’s Outlook – Key Points
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BTC reclaimed the bull market support band – After briefly dipping below, Bitcoin closed the week back above the 20-week SMA (~$113.4K), a bullish sign late in the cycle
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Holding the 50-week MA is critical – Cowen warns that two weekly closes below this level (~$113K) would signal the end of the market cycle
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Dominance creeping higher – Bitcoin dominance has been quietly increasing, now near 59%. Cowen expects a sharp move once it crosses 60%
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Liquidity narrative tied to the Fed – Markets are speculating that the Fed could end quantitative tightening soon, potentially helping BTC
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Market structure is weakening – Each cycle leg sees deeper retests of prior highs, signaling reduced strength. Losing the next key level (~$125K) could mark a shift
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Seasonality has been unreliable – Despite weak equity seasonality, Bitcoin has held up. Cowen advises watching structure more than seasonal trends
Final Takeaway
Cowen sees the bounce as encouraging but urges caution. If Bitcoin stays above support, there’s still time for another leg higher. But if it loses key levels soon, it could mean the top is in for this cycle.
