Benjamin Cowen reviews Bitcoin’s bull market support band, comparing current price action to past cycles. His focus is on whether BTC can hold this key level as Q4 begins.
Key Points
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Cycle similarities - Current BTC structure looks like 2020, with a rally after capitulation, sideways chop, and testing the support band. Also echoes 2017 and 2021, when Bitcoin bounced off the same zone.
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September pattern - Bitcoin saw two weeks up, then two weeks down, almost identical to previous cycles. Cowen warns a week or two more of consolidation is still possible.
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Gold connection - In past cycles, gold breakouts coincided with temporary Bitcoin weakness. That’s been the case again, suggesting history may be repeating.
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Support holding - So far, BTC has stayed above the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA. No weekly close below them is a positive sign.
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Ethereum’s outlook - ETH could tag its own 21-week EMA if BTC wicks lower, or simply move sideways until support catches up. Long-term trend still points higher.
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Caution for Q4 - As a post-halving year, history suggests cycle tops often arrive in late Q4. Cowen advises against assuming this time will be different.
Final Takeaway
Bitcoin continues to respect its bull market support band, echoing past bullish cycles. Some short-term chop may remain, but holding above these levels keeps the door open for a Q4 rally.
