In this livestream, Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin is firmly in a bear market and is sitting at a critical level where downside risk still matters more than upside potential.
Key points
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Cowen’s main message is simple: bear markets are about survival, not profits. Avoid panic trades and focus on limiting losses, the upside comes later.
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Bitcoin is trading around $75,000, a level he sees as important support. A short-term bounce is possible, but he does not see this as confirmation of a bottom.
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Based on past cycles, he thinks Bitcoin may still need a deeper reset, potentially involving a ~50% drawdown from the highs, which would place price closer to long-term historical support.
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He highlights that Bitcoin has gone unusually long without a full 50% drop, which makes him think more downside remains likely before the bear market truly ends.
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Ethereum has already revisited a key level near $2,100, which he views as typical behavior during broader market weakness.
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On altcoins, Cowen stays bearish. He argues most have been underperforming Bitcoin for years, and without strong retail hype, he does not expect a meaningful alt season.
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From a macro perspective, he warns that crypto can fall even if stocks hold up, and says liquidity conditions, not narratives, will decide when the market finally turns.
Takeaway
Cowen remains cautious. While Bitcoin may see brief bounces, he believes the bear market is not over yet and that patience and risk control matter more than trying to catch the bottom.
