Benjamin Cowen goes live as Bitcoin tags the 200 week moving average around 61.8K, the moment he has been calling for months, and walks through what comes next.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin has officially reached its date with destiny, tagging the 200 week moving average sitting around 61.8K, the same level that marked major lows in 2018 and 2022
- A June low followed by a quiet July rally and then a final drop in Q4 remains the base case, with October being the single most likely month for the cycle bottom
- On chain metrics are getting close but not quite there yet, the MVRV Z score needs to go below zero and the on chain risk indicator needs to drop to around 0.1 before a true bottom can be confirmed
- Bitcoin against gold has already broken the February low, signaling further weakness ahead with Bitcoin likely dropping another 30% against gold before the year is out
- The balance price sits around 38 to 40K but hitting it is not a requirement, each cycle the drawdown has gotten progressively less severe
- The best accumulation strategy is not a price target but a time window, starting to DCA around the June low and adding through the second half of the year
Takeaway Nothing has changed. The four year cycle is intact, the counter trend rally believers have been proven wrong again, and the market is doing exactly what it always does. Patience through Q3 and a watchful eye on Q4 is still the only strategy that has consistently worked.
