Benjamin Cowen returns with a deep dive into Bitcoin’s current market position and the possibility that the cycle top may already be in. He draws comparisons to 2019, overlays macro trends like quantitative tightening, and reinforces his long-standing thesis: Bitcoin dominance rises when monetary policy tightens. With December’s key shifts ahead, Cowen believes the next few weeks could define the rest of the cycle.
Key Points:
-
Cycle Top Could Be In – Based on ROI from the market low and the timing relative to past cycles, October may have marked the top. Cowen now gives it a 50/50 chance.
-
2026 = Bear Market? – Just like 2014, 2018, and 2022, Cowen expects the next midterm year to be a bear market, with Bitcoin likely bottoming around October 2026.
-
Altcoins Still Bleeding – Altcoin-Bitcoin pairs continue to drop. He maintains his long-term target that these ratios fall to 0.25 before any altseason can happen.
-
Bitcoin Dominance to Peak in December – Cowen strongly believes dominance could top in December, just like in 2019 when QT ended. He thinks the rally in dominance has been driven more by macro than hype or ETFs.
-
No Euphoria, No Retail – Cowen notes the lack of euphoria this cycle. Bitcoin has posted higher highs, but momentum and retail interest have been weak compared to past cycles.
-
Death Cross Incoming – A weekly death cross is likely soon. Cowen suggests it might align with the end of the government shutdown or the QT shift, which could trigger a bounce - but likely led only by Bitcoin.
-
Dominance Is Key – Whether Bitcoin rises or stalls, he believes Bitcoin dominance will climb. Alts will likely continue bleeding against BTC until conditions reverse in 2026.
Final Takeaway:
Cowen isn’t calling the top outright, but he’s treating this as a possible topping process. If another rally happens, it’ll be Bitcoin-led. If not, we’re entering a long grind into a potential 2026 bottom. Either way, Bitcoin dominance remains the clearest signal - and he expects it to peak around the time QT ends in December.
