In this video, Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin’s ongoing decline is not unusual but part of a familiar bear market structure. He says the October peak likely marked the cycle top and that current price action closely mirrors past downturns.
Key points
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Cowen believes Bitcoin topped in October, as it typically does in the fourth quarter of the post-halving year.
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After breaking below its long-term trend level in November, Bitcoin officially entered a bear market in his view.
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In prior cycles, Bitcoin consistently moved from initial breakdown levels toward much deeper long-term support before stabilizing.
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Historically, it has taken several months after the first major breakdown for Bitcoin to reach its deeper bear market lows.
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This cycle is moving faster than usual, suggesting either a sharp countertrend rally first or continued downside toward long-term support.
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Cowen says short-term rallies are normal in bear markets but usually fail and lead to lower highs, not new bull runs.
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He strongly pushes back against the idea of a “super cycle,” arguing that broader macro conditions and social interest do not support it.
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Altcoins remain especially weak, with many already back near 2022 lows, reinforcing his view that this is still a risk-off phase.
Takeaway
Cowen’s message is blunt: this looks like a standard Bitcoin bear market playing out, not a broken model or a hidden bull cycle. Until sentiment fully turns pessimistic and resistance fades, he believes patience and realism matter more than chasing hope-driven rallies.
