Benjamin Cowen analyzes Bitcoin’s current position, emphasizing that next week will be a major decision point due to upcoming U.S. labor market data. He explores how macroeconomic trends could determine Bitcoin’s next move.
Bitcoin Outlook
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Bitcoin is approaching a critical decision point next week as the market awaits U.S. labor data.
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Historically, Bitcoin moves near range highs before key economic data releases.
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If no major macro shocks occur, Bitcoin is more likely to go up than down.
Key Factors Impacting Bitcoin’s Move
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Bitcoin Doesn’t Need a Reason to Go Up
Key Highlights:-
Markets tend to trend higher naturally due to money printing and DCA inflows.
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However, Bitcoin needs a reason to go down, which usually comes from inflation or unemployment concerns.
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Unemployment Rate as a Major Indicator
Key Highlights:-
When unemployment rises, Bitcoin struggles.
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If the unemployment rate remains stable (4.1% - 4.2%), Bitcoin is likely to continue its uptrend.
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A spike to 4.3% - 4.4% could trigger a Bitcoin pullback.
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A sharp drop in unemployment could introduce inflation fears, leading to uncertainty in risk assets.
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Bitcoin’s Cyclical Behavior
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Bitcoin has been mirroring last year’s price action closely.
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If the pattern holds, Bitcoin could break higher in early February, similar to February 2023.
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Based on historical cycles, Bitcoin’s next price target could be $120K - $150K if momentum continues.
Potential Market Outcomes
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Unemployment Stays at 4.1%-4.2% → Bitcoin Moves Higher
Key Highlights:-
Bitcoin follows last year’s pattern and rallies into February/March.
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Supports the idea of a right-translated cycle, meaning Bitcoin’s peak could be later in 2024 (Q4).
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Unemployment Spikes to 4.3%-4.4% → Bitcoin Faces Resistance
Key Highlights:-
A sharp increase in unemployment could stall Bitcoin’s momentum.
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Bitcoin might sell off, consolidate, and retry a breakout later in the year.
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Unemployment Drops Significantly → Market Concerns Shift
Key Highlights:-
A lower unemployment rate might raise inflation fears, leading to Fed uncertainty.
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This could trigger a sell-off in risk assets, including Bitcoin.
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Final Thoughts: Bitcoin’s Path Will Be Clear Next Week
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Next Friday’s unemployment data release is the key catalyst—any surprise could disrupt Bitcoin’s uptrend.
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If no surprises occur, Bitcoin’s bullish cycle is expected to continue into Q2 2024.
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Cowen advises patience and letting the market confirm its direction before making big moves.
📌 If Bitcoin follows its historical cycle, the next big move could happen soon—but macro data will dictate the pace.