Benjamin Cowen analyzes Bitcoin’s current position, emphasizing that next week will be a major decision point due to upcoming U.S. labor market data. He explores how macroeconomic trends could determine Bitcoin’s next move.


Bitcoin Outlook

Key Highlights:
  • Bitcoin is approaching a critical decision point next week as the market awaits U.S. labor data.

  • Historically, Bitcoin moves near range highs before key economic data releases.

  • If no major macro shocks occur, Bitcoin is more likely to go up than down.


Key Factors Impacting Bitcoin’s Move

  1. Bitcoin Doesn’t Need a Reason to Go Up

    Key Highlights:
    • Markets tend to trend higher naturally due to money printing and DCA inflows.

    • However, Bitcoin needs a reason to go down, which usually comes from inflation or unemployment concerns.

  2. Unemployment Rate as a Major Indicator

    Key Highlights:
    • When unemployment rises, Bitcoin struggles.

    • If the unemployment rate remains stable (4.1% - 4.2%), Bitcoin is likely to continue its uptrend.

    • A spike to 4.3% - 4.4% could trigger a Bitcoin pullback.

    • A sharp drop in unemployment could introduce inflation fears, leading to uncertainty in risk assets.


Bitcoin’s Cyclical Behavior

Key Highlights:
  • Bitcoin has been mirroring last year’s price action closely.

  • If the pattern holds, Bitcoin could break higher in early February, similar to February 2023.

  • Based on historical cycles, Bitcoin’s next price target could be $120K - $150K if momentum continues.


Potential Market Outcomes

  1. Unemployment Stays at 4.1%-4.2% → Bitcoin Moves Higher

    Key Highlights:
    • Bitcoin follows last year’s pattern and rallies into February/March.

    • Supports the idea of a right-translated cycle, meaning Bitcoin’s peak could be later in 2024 (Q4).

  2. Unemployment Spikes to 4.3%-4.4% → Bitcoin Faces Resistance

    Key Highlights:
    • A sharp increase in unemployment could stall Bitcoin’s momentum.

    • Bitcoin might sell off, consolidate, and retry a breakout later in the year.

  3. Unemployment Drops Significantly → Market Concerns Shift

    Key Highlights:
    • A lower unemployment rate might raise inflation fears, leading to Fed uncertainty.

    • This could trigger a sell-off in risk assets, including Bitcoin.


Final Thoughts: Bitcoin’s Path Will Be Clear Next Week

Key Highlights:
  • Next Friday’s unemployment data release is the key catalyst—any surprise could disrupt Bitcoin’s uptrend.

  • If no surprises occur, Bitcoin’s bullish cycle is expected to continue into Q2 2024.

  • Cowen advises patience and letting the market confirm its direction before making big moves.

📌 If Bitcoin follows its historical cycle, the next big move could happen soon—but macro data will dictate the pace.