Benjamin Cowen revisits Bitcoin dominance and its role in navigating the crypto market. He emphasizes that while many expect an altcoin rally, the data and historical patterns suggest otherwise. Here's a breakdown of his key insights:
1. Bitcoin Dominance Is Still Rising
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Dominance has been trending upward since late 2021, especially when excluding stablecoins.
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It recently approached 66%, a key resistance level that has historically led to pullbacks.
2. False Alt Season Hopes
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Every time Bitcoin dominance stalls, many call for "alt season."
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So far, these calls have been premature. Liquidity tends to return to Bitcoin after brief pauses.
3. Ethereum’s Relative Strength
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Cowen believes Ethereum has likely bottomed against Bitcoin for this cycle.
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Even if alts rally short-term, they’re still losing value against ETH.
4. Outlook for Altcoins
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Altcoin/BTC pairs haven’t yet reached their range lows.
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Cowen expects another drop in altcoin value by late October, repeating patterns from past years.
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Short rallies are possible, but long-term, most altcoins are underperforming both BTC and ETH.
5. What Could Happen Next
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Bitcoin dominance may briefly pull back but likely has another push higher.
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Whether it sets a new high depends on Ethereum’s next move.
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If ETH consolidates or dips, altcoins could bleed further.
Conclusion
Cowen maintains a cautious view on altcoins and sees Ethereum as the stronger option for now. Bitcoin dominance could climb further, especially if the macro environment stays uncertain and altcoins continue to underperform.
