Benjamin Cowen says the market is about to see its final big rotation into Bitcoin. While many traders are calling for alt season, Cowen believes Bitcoin dominance is set to surge through October - just like it did in past cycles.
Key Points
-
Current levels - Bitcoin dominance is around 58% and Cowen thinks the September low is already in at ~57%.
-
Seasonal pattern - Historically, September marks a bottom for dominance, with October being the strongest month on record. Past cycles (2017, 2020, 2021) all saw dominance spike in Q4 before altcoins caught up.
-
Outlook for October - Dominance could rise 4–10% in October, putting it back above 60%. Liquidity should flow back to Bitcoin as confidence in altcoins lags.
-
Why alts lag - Social interest in crypto remains low, meaning fewer new retail buyers. Without fresh demand, altcoins struggle to lead. Even Ethereum usually lags Bitcoin by weeks when markets turn up.
-
Market behavior - Expect Bitcoin to rise faster than alts, and for alts to fall harder during pullbacks. Early signs of this shift are already visible - BTC is outperforming ETH and broader alt indexes.
-
Invalidation level - If dominance drops to 55–56%, Cowen admits his view would be wrong. But he sees that as unlikely given the repeated September bottom pattern.
Final Takeaway
Cowen’s message is simple: don’t fade Bitcoin. The next big move is likely a dominance spike as liquidity rotates back to BTC in October, with altcoins playing catch-up later.
