Benjamin Cowen breaks down why Bitcoin dominance is likely to keep rising, even if the broader crypto market enters a bearish phase. He compares the current cycle to 2019, highlighting macro similarities and the impact of quantitative tightening (QT) ending. Cowen argues that altcoins may continue bleeding against Bitcoin for a while longer.
Cowen’s Outlook – Key Points
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History Rhyming with 2019
Bitcoin dominance surged after QT ended in 2019 and may follow a similar path now. Just like then, BTC topped on apathy (not hype), and alts bled against BTC even after the peak. -
Dominance Could Climb Before Alt Relief
Cowen expects BTC dominance to rise toward 60% or higher. He believes altcoins will continue losing ground until macro conditions - like Fed policy and interest rates - align to favor riskier assets. -
Retail Interest Still Missing
Unlike in 2017 or 2021, retail participation remains low. Cowen says altseason needs new retail demand, not just recycled liquidity. -
Macro Conditions Still Unfavorable for Alts
QT just ended, but Cowen doesn’t expect immediate easing. Rates are still high, and without stimulus or rate cuts, alts may continue to struggle. -
Altcoin Capitulation May Still Be Ahead
He points to patterns where alts often bottom in Q4 or summer, meaning more downside is possible before a real recovery begins.
Final Takeaway
Cowen stays bullish on Bitcoin dominance in the short term. Whether BTC rallies or dips, it will likely continue stealing liquidity from alts. He sees no signs of a true altseason until macro and sentiment shift significantly.
