Ben believes Bitcoin dominance is primed to continue rising through early December, even if the climb feels slow. The setup mirrors previous cycles.
Key Points
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Dominance still rising – Despite some noise, BTC dominance has been trending upward for 8 weeks and sits just under 60%.
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December pattern – Historically, many altcoins, including ETH/BTC, bottom out in early December. That pattern appears to be repeating.
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Liquidity favors BTC – During quantitative tightening, liquidity tends to consolidate into BTC. Cowen expects this trend to persist until QT ends, possibly in December.
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ETH holding stronger – ETH/BTC is forming higher lows, but most other alt/BTC pairs are setting lower lows, pointing to continued weakness outside majors.
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Macro comparison – Cowen compares the current environment to 2019, where BTC stayed flat while draining liquidity from alts.
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DXY rising – A strengthening dollar historically leads to weaker altcoin performance versus BTC.
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Dominance breakout coming – Ben expects dominance to break above the 60% resistance band and possibly surge into December like it did in 2017, 2019, and 2020.
Final Takeaway
BTC remains the stronger play. Whether Bitcoin rallies or stays flat, dominance is likely heading higher as alts continue to bleed out.
