Cowen says the selloff is accelerating fast, with Bitcoin now down about 50% from the October 2025 peak and trading around the low $60Ks. His main point is that this is exactly why trying to time “counter-trend rallies” is risky, because the market can drop hard before any bounce shows up.
What he thinks is happening
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He compares this to past bear markets (2018, 2022) where Bitcoin eventually put in a sharp capitulation low, bounced, then chopped sideways for months before another leg down.
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The next major level on his radar is the 200-week moving average, which he calls Bitcoin’s “date with destiny” in bear markets. He notes it’s around the high $50Ks and BTC is getting there much faster than usual.
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Because the drop is happening quicker than prior cycles, he’s less confident about timing, but still leans toward a larger cycle low later in the year. His “most likely” window is May to October, with a preference for October, and May as a backup if the market keeps cascading.
Altcoins and “risk-off”
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He says altcoins are getting wrecked again, many round-tripping to old lows, and argues they’ve been bleeding versus safer assets for years.
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He also repeats his view that gold is the better metal vs silver in this environment, and that “flight to safety” looks more like Bitcoin plus stablecoins rather than alts.
Takeaway
Cowen’s outlook stays bearish: he expects a capitulation-style low soonish that could hold for a while, but he still thinks the bigger bottom is more likely later (May–October). Any bounce, in his view, is likely to be a trap that turns into a macro lower high before the bear market is truly done.
