Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin’s rally to around $78K still looks like a bear market bounce, not a confirmed new bull trend. His view is that Bitcoin is following familiar midterm-year patterns.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Cowen says Q4 2025 was the main selling window, while current rallies are harder to trade
- Bitcoin has followed expected weakness windows so far, with lows in February and early April
- The next likely weakness windows are June and October, based on past midterm years
- Current price action looks similar to 2018, with a higher April low followed by a rally into May
- If Bitcoin keeps rallying into June, it may resemble 2014, but Cowen still expects a retest of lows later
- He says the four-year cycle is not clearly broken, as Bitcoin topped around the same cycle timing as before
- A move back above the 50-week moving average would make him reconsider the bearish view
Final Takeaway
Cowen’s message is to avoid chasing strength. Bitcoin may still rally short term, but unless it confirms a trend change, he expects another move lower before a real bottom forms.
