Benjamin Cowen has presented an insightful analysis comparing Bitcoin's current price action to historical patterns, particularly focusing on "death cross" rallies. While Bitcoin typically rallies after death crosses (as seen in 2023 and 2024), Cowen cautions against excessive optimism by highlighting key similarities to 2019's market behavior.
Key Points from Cowen's Analysis:
Key Highlights:
- Critical Price Level: Bitcoin is currently testing a crucial resistance level around $96,500. In 2019, Bitcoin failed to secure weekly closes above a similar breakthrough level, eventually leading to lower lows.
- Historical Pattern Comparison: The current rally (~30%) following the death cross is actually less pronounced than 2019's rally (42%), which still resulted in a lower low approximately one month later.
- 50-Day Moving Average: If Bitcoin were to retrace, the 50-day moving average (currently around $86-87K) would be the level to watch for potential support.
- Bitcoin Dominance Trends: During consolidation phases in 2023, 2024, and now 2025, Bitcoin dominance has generally increased. This suggests Bitcoin remains a safer play than altcoins in the current market environment.
- Potential Catalyst: Cowen identifies the upcoming inflation data (mid-May) as a possible negative catalyst if numbers come in higher than expected, particularly given recent tariffs and price increases.
Cowen's Strategic Outlook:
Cowen maintains that Bitcoin offers a better risk-reward profile than altcoins in the current environment:
Key Highlights:
- If Bitcoin rises, altcoins will likely rise but underperform Bitcoin
- If Bitcoin falls, altcoins will likely fall more dramatically
- Bitcoin dominance could quickly reach 66% if Bitcoin experiences even a modest correction
For bullish confirmation, Cowen is looking for weekly closes above $96.5K, which would differentiate the current pattern from 2019's failed rally.
