Benjamin Cowen takes a cautious look at whether Bitcoin just put in its June low and what history says happens next.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin swept the February low but managed to close the week back above the 200 week moving average, which is at least a point in the bulls' favor
- The 2018 setup is tracking almost identically, February low, May high, June sweep, followed by a slow drift higher into late July before volatility dried up completely for the summer
- Even if the June low is in, expect Bitcoin to stay weak for a few more weeks before any meaningful counter trend rally kicks in
- The final low almost certainly still comes in Q4, so starting to DCA now is reasonable but be prepared to see lower prices later in the year
Takeaway Too early to call the June low definitively, but the structure is holding. The real question is not if Bitcoin goes lower this year but when, and that answer most likely comes in October.
