In this video, Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin is doing what it usually does in a cycle: it tops in the post-halving year, then slides into a bearish phase where people lose interest and narratives pop up to explain the drop. His main point is that you do not need a dramatic story for why it is falling, cycles and fading attention can be enough.
Key Points
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Benjamin says Bitcoin historically tops in Q4 of the post-halving year (2013, 2017, 2021, and he argues 2025 fits that pattern)
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Every cycle gets a different “reason” for the bear market, but the pattern repeats anyway
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This time, his simple explanation is apathy, fewer people care, social interest is low, and the buying pressure fades
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He expects macro headwinds to keep Bitcoin weak in the first half of 2026, not a quick “supercycle” recovery
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Seasonally, he says bear markets often show weakness into February, a bounce or local high in March, then more weakness in April and May
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He views current levels as a bear market resistance zone until proven otherwise
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Even if Bitcoin bounces above resistance briefly, he thinks a durable recovery likely takes much longer, possibly into 2027
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He warns that late-year surprises often hit in bear markets, usually something people do not expect until it happens
Final Takeaway
Benjamin’s outlook is cautious: Bitcoin is acting cyclical, not broken. He thinks the market is in a low-interest phase where rallies can happen, but real trend changes may take time, and the first half of 2026 could stay rough before conditions improve later on.
