Benjamin Cowen cuts through the noise to explain why the same cycle that everyone keeps trying to outsmart keeps playing out exactly as expected.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin underperformed gold, the S&P, energy, silver, and even Microsoft in the first half of 2026, proving that ignoring it entirely was the right call and the new low on July 1st confirmed it
- Bitcoin is now squeezed between the 200 week moving average below and the bear market resistance band above, and when those two levels meet in the next month or two a resolution is coming
- Key on chain indicators like the MVRV Z score and realized price have not fully reset yet, historically both go below zero and below 53K respectively before the final low is in
- Social interest in crypto has dropped from 3 to 4 million YouTube views per day in 2021 to around 400,000 today, and most altcoins have now fallen below their 2022 lows with no rotation ever materializing
- The final low will likely be marked by a massive volume spike just like 2014, 2018, and 2022, and that spike has not happened yet
Takeaway Everyone waiting for alt season, M2, ISM data, or the Clarity Act to save the market has been wrong for years. The cycle keeps playing out the same way and the simplest strategy, DCAing Bitcoin in the second half of midterm years, keeps being the right one.
