Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin’s rally may still be part of a broader bear market, similar to 2014, 2018, and 2019.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin is testing the 200-day moving average, which acted as major resistance during previous bear market rallies
- Cowen says the current structure closely resembles 2019 because Bitcoin topped shortly before quantitative tightening ended in both cycles
- Past midterm-year bear markets saw strong multi-month rallies before Bitcoin eventually rolled over again later in the year
- He highlights the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement as a common level where previous counter-trend rallies lost momentum
- If Bitcoin breaks above the 200-day moving average, he sees a possible move toward the $85K region before another rejection
- Cowen believes June often acts as a turning point, with rallies peaking there before weakness returns into Q4
- He argues Bitcoin has lagged behind gold, energy, silver, and even the S&P 500 throughout 2026
- Tight monetary policy and fading expectations for rate cuts continue to pressure crypto more than traditional markets
Final Takeaway
Cowen remains cautious and believes the current rally still looks more like a temporary bear market recovery than the start of a new long-term bull cycle.
